Intelligence Estimate & Issue Paper

Assessment Task 3:
Intelligence Estimate & Issue Paper
Monday, Week 9
Prepare an Intelligence Estimate based on a selected subject chosen from a list posted to
the PICT2010 iLearn page by the end of Week 4. From the Intelligence Estimate, prepare a
One-Page Issue Paper summarising your assessments in the Intelligence Estimate.
Additional guidance and formats for both the Intelligence Estimate and the One-Page Issue
Paper are provided on the PICT2010 iLearn page. Both documents will be submitted to
Turnitin in a single Microsoft Word or other compatible word processing program formatted
document using 12-point font. This assessment task comprises 30% of the total course
grade.
Arguments must be supported with evidence and by critical analysis, not description and
without unsubstantiated opinion.
There is a 2000-word limit (+/-10%) on the Intelligence Estimate background paper. Word
Count includes 1.5 or double-spaced textual input, source referencing in paper and
footnotes but not bibliography or title page. The Intelligence Estimate should be supported
by at least 5 academic sources, fully cited (using Oxford / Harvard Referencing Style),
including peer-reviewed journal articles, books from academic publishers, government
reports, ‘think tank’ reports (i.e. ASPI, Lowy, RAND, CSIS, etc.). Unit readings may be used
and extra sources such as high-quality newspaper articles can be used but do not count
towards minimum source referencing requirements.
One-Page Issue Paper margins must adhere to a no narrower than 1” (inch) limit and singlespaced textual input at no less than 12-point, Calibri or Times New Roman font. No
referencing is required for the Issue Paper.
Both the Intelligence Estimate and One-Page Issue Paper must be submitted in the same
document to Turnitin, with the One-Page Issue Paper as the top or first section, followed by
the Intelligence Estimate in the second section. All source referencing is contained in the
Intelligence Estimate, not in the One-Page Issue Paper.
This assessment task is to be submitted to Turnitin by 2359/11.59 PM on Monday night of
Week 9. Marker feedback will be provided on Turnitin through Grademark. Again, this
assessment task is worth 30% of the final course grade and a marking rubric is posted to
iLearn and is contained in Turnitin.
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Intelligence Estimate & Issue Paper – Assessment Task Guidelines:
The ability to research and write a succinct, critically analysed and predictive Intelligence
Estimate and Issue Paper that consider alternative positions, using a bottom line upfront
(BLUF) writing style, is a core capability for an intelligence analyst in any and every
intelligence discipline.
Pick one (1) of the following four (4) case study scenarios, then research and build your
Intelligence Estimate & Issue Paper using the guidance provided below.
You will use an ‘Intelligence Estimate’ analytical approach to build your paper, employing
intelligence preparation of the operational environment or battlespace (IPOE/JIPB),
including centres of gravity analysis leading to most likely & most dangerous potential
adversary courses of action (CoA). Additional guidance is provided below.
Always consider and assess alternative predictive assessments or alternative futures when
arriving at most likely & most dangerous course of action (COA) determination. Be critically
minded and balanced, yet decisive at the same time, indicating your level of certainty and
identifying key knowledge gaps.
Intelligence Estimate & Issue Paper – Subjects (‘Up and Out’ – Foreign Intelligence):
Scenario 1. North Korea Nuclear & Ballistic Missile Program: You are a Defence Intelligence
Organisation (DIO) or Headquarters Joint Operations Centre (JOC), J2 (Intelligence
Directorate), Bungendore intelligence analyst and you have been directed to research,
analyse and deliver a comprehensive yet concise ‘Intelligence Estimate’ & one-page ‘Issue
Paper’ on the historical, current and projected situation in North Korea concerning its
Nuclear Weapons and Ballistic Missile programs. Your assigned mission is to provide an
intelligence assessment on this problem using an intelligence preparation of the operational
environment approach to support the development of potential future Australian national
courses of action (CoAs). You will need to assess North Korea’s Nuclear and Ballistic Missile
program capabilities and assess its intent to employ them: how, when and where — most
likely and most dangerous courses of action (COAs).
Scenario 2. PRC Maritime Territorial Ambitions in the South China Sea: You are a Defence
Intelligence Organisation (DIO) or Headquarters Joint Operations Centre (JOC), J2
(Intelligence Directorate), Bungendore intelligence analyst and you have been directed to
build a comprehensive yet concise ‘Intelligence Estimate’ & one-page ‘Issue Paper’ on the
historical, current and projected situation in the South China Sea involving expansive
People’s Republic of China (PRC) maritime territorial claims. Your assigned mission is to
provide an intelligence assessment on this problem using an intelligence preparation of the
operational environment approach to support the development of potential future
Australian national courses of action (CoAs). You will need to assess the PRC’s expansive
maritime territorial claims and supporting activities in the South China Sea, as well as
China’s future intentions, to include most likely and most dangerous potential courses of
action (COAs).
Scenario 3. ISIS-affiliated, Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) Insurgency & Terrorism Activities in the
Southern Philippines: You are an Australian Federal Police (AFP) intelligence analyst
working in counter-terrorism and you have been directed to build a comprehensive yet
concise ‘Intelligence Estimate’ & one-page ‘Issue Paper’ on the historical, current and
projected situation on the ground in the southern Philippines in relation to ASG activities
there. Your assigned mission is to provide an intelligence assessment on this problem using
an intelligence preparation of the operational environment approach to support the
development of potential future Australian national courses of action (CoAs). You will need
to assess ASG insurgency and terrorist activities in the southern Philippinse, as well as ASG
Maritime Kidnapping (Piracy) activities in the Sulu and Celebes Sea, leading to an
assessment of ASG most likely and most dangerous potential future courses of action
(COAs).
Scenario 4. People’s Republic of China (PRC) Intentions for Taiwan: You are a Defence
Intelligence Organisation (DIO) or Headquarters Joint Operations Centre (JOC), J2
(Intelligence Directorate), Bungendore intelligence analyst and you have been directed to
build a comprehensive yet concise ‘Intelligence Estimate’ & one-page ‘Issue Paper’ on the
historical, current and projected situation concerning the PRC’s intentions for Taiwan. Your
assigned mission is to provide an intelligence assessment on this problem using an
intelligence preparation of the operational environment approach to support the
development of potential future Australian national courses of action (CoAs). You will need
to assess the PRC’s intentions to enforce its ‘One-China Policy’ towards Taiwan using
Diplomatic, Informational, Military & Economic (DIME) actions or ‘levers’ of national power,
to include an assessment of China’s most likely and most dangerous potential future courses
of action (COAs).
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Issue or Decision Paper (Executive Assessment) Format:
• Issue: Succinctly describes the overarching issue
• Key Finding: BLUF – Bottom Line Up-Front; Tight description of the main conclusions of your
analysis
– What? So What? Now What? (Neil Quarmby’s ‘3 second grab’)
• Discussion: (Critical & Creative Analysis of Issue):
– Tight Description of Issue (most important point 1st, not a date)
– Analysis of the Issue – Testing & Imagining
– Alternative Perspectives / Dissenting Views
– Why you Reject Alternatives and Defend your Bottom Line Assessment – Rationale
• Future Projection: Predictive Analysis – What’s next?
• Recommendations: If applicable, required; recommendations for ‘higher authority’ approval
• Point of Contact: Name, Phone #, Email Address
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‘Intelligence Estimate’ Description:
INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE (2000-word limit)
As generally defined in US Department of Defense, Joint Publication 2.01, Joint and National
Intelligence Support to Military Operations:
The Intelligence Estimate provides a structured assessment of available intelligence relating
to a specific situation or condition with a view to determining the courses of action open to
the enemy or adversary and the order of probability of their adoption. Joint Intelligence
Preparation of the Battlespace (JIPB) or Joint Intelligence Preparation of the Operational
Environment (JIPOE) processes are used to provide the background and reference analysis
for the Intelligence Estimate. The intelligence staff prepares the Intelligence Estimate as
part of their input to the operational planning and decision-making process. Mission
analysis, facts and assumptions, and situation analysis (of area of operations, area of
interest, and the enemy, friendly, and support requirements) are the basis of all staff
estimates; each staff estimate consists of significant facts, events, and conclusions based on
analysed data.
The intelligence staff estimate also recommends how to best use all available Intelligence,
Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) assets both organic and non-organic and how to ‘all
source’ fuse collected intelligence to produce analysed intelligence product at the tactical,
operational and strategic levels, as well as how to disseminate that intelligence analysis.
Combined with other staff estimates, the intelligence estimate forms the basis of friendly
(Blue Force) course of action development, analysis, and comparison. Failure to develop
timely and accurate staff estimates can lead to flawed friendly courses action and decisions.
The objective of ‘estimative intelligence’ is to view the situation through the adversary’s
eyes, visualising which Courses of Action (COAs) are available to the adversary, analyse the
advantages and disadvantages of each from the adversary’s perspective and estimate which
is the most likely option to be chosen. The intelligence estimate should contain an
assessment of all adversary COAs, including the adversary’s most likely COA, as well as the
COA determined to be most dangerous to friendly mission accomplishment.
The Intelligence Annex to an operational plan or order (Annex B) provides detailed
JIPB/JIPOE information on the adversary situation, establishes priorities, assigns intelligence
tasks, identifies required intelligence products, requests support from higher echelons,
describes the concept of intelligence operations and specifies intelligence procedures. Two
critical processes inform Annex B (Intelligence): The Intelligence Estimate and the J2 Staff
Estimate.
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‘Intelligence Estimate’ Format:
Intelligence Estimate:
Develop your Intelligence Estimate as if you are an intelligence analyst working for a related
Australian Intelligence Agency responsible for each area or subject matter.
1. MISSION (Minimal word count)
Clearly and succinctly restate policymaker/decisionmaker mission requirements and intent,
and in one-line only, state your objective in preparing the Intelligence Estimate.
2. SITUATION AND CONSIDERATIONS (Equivalent to a Policy Paper Executive Summary &
Overview sections) (200 Words max)
Describe the current intelligence situation and key considerations in the area of operations.
Provide an overview of environmental and adversarial factors, including unique weather,
terrain and adversary issues leading to centres of gravity analysis. List Operational and
Strategic Centres of Gravity and Most Likely, Most Dangerous Adversary Courses of Action
(COAs) but not in detail. Save more detailed assessment for the ‘Analysis’ section below.
3. ANALYSIS (Approximately 800 words)
Provided more detailed analysis using Intelligence Preparation of the Operational
Environment (IPOE) of the following:
• Evaluate the Environment: Characteristics of the Area – pertinent Weather, Terrain,
Geography, Infrastructure features; show geographic overview of the Area of Operations
and then Named Areas of Interest (NAI) as required (for instance, the maritime region
around the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea or the sea or coastal areas where Abu
Sayyaf Group (ASG) maritime kidnapping operations are taking place off Borneo could be
designated as NAIs). Use geographic maps as needed to depict Avenues of Approach,
Lines of Communication and Sea Lines of Communication (SLOCs) to describe the
environment. Weather patterns such as the typhoon or monsoon seasons could be
important factors in their impact on both Adversary and Friendly Force operations.
• Evaluate the Adversary: Adversary Assessment: Intent, Objectives, Government,
Leadership Personalities, Weapons, Order of Battle, Tactics, Techniques & Procedures
(TTPs). Breakout Adversary force disposition, composition, strength and capabilities.
• Centres of Gravity (COG) Analysis:
– Adversary Critical Capabilities / Critical Vulnerabilities
– Strategic COGs / Operational COGs (Key Findings)
– Most Likely / Most Dangerous COAs (Key Findings). Keep number of options
down…if more complex, use branch & sequel planning structure. Analyse each
Adversary COA to determine advantages and disadvantages.
PICT2010 Students skip this section: Evaluate Friendly Forces. Coalition partners, NonGovernment Organisations (NGOs) and their capabilities, vulnerabilities and capacities.
Determine your Intelligence Requirements process and how that process will drive your
Collection, Analysis, Production & Dissemination scheme. Consider intelligence partner
nations and what capabilities and capacity they provide and how they can provide them.
4. COMPARISON (Approximately 800 words)
Compare what you know against what you don’t know. What are the counter-arguments to
or limits on your key findings and positions? Provide Alternative Assessment to Primary
Arguments. (Why you may be wrong). Then, why you think you are right, why your Primary
Argument is stronger than an Alternative Assessment. From this, identify your Top Three (3)
key ‘Intelligence Gaps’ or information (knowledge) shortfalls — what you are missing and
what you still need to fill out the intelligence picture. Finally, determine and list your Top
Three (3) Priority Intelligence Requirements (PIRs) based on your intelligence analysis and
your Intelligence & Information Gap analysis — what three key intelligence ‘needs’ do you
have or questions do you need to have answered? PIRs and Intelligence Gaps should drive
development of your Intelligence Collection Plan. For the purposes of this assessment task,
compare & contrast counter-arguments and identify your top three (3) Intelligence Gaps and
top three (3) PIRs only; do not develop an Intelligence Collection Plan.
5. RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS (200 words max)
Make any recommendations about the potential adversary and potential high-profile
shortfalls or issues concerning intelligence support, including specific recommendations on
how to address PIRs and Intelligence Gaps, as well as other actions to be taken to leverage
better coalition partner intelligence exchange, support and operations. PICT2010 students
have the option (but are not required) to also recommend best approach to the Intelligence
Cycle, from Requirements generation through Collection, Analysis, Production &
Dissemination phases. (You do not need to create ‘cold fusion’ here, we just want to see that
you understand and can conceptualize the basic setup of a ‘real world’ Intelligence Cycle
process under the circumstances presented in these scenarios).
6. REFERENCE LIST
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It is each student’s responsibility to ensure that their papers are properly downloaded to
Turnitin. You must, repeat must, check your submission in Turnitin after downloading to
ensure your paper has correctly uploaded and is ‘ready for marking’.
Do this early and do not wait until the last minute to submit and then not have your
submission properly uploaded by the due date/time. In some cases, the system will not
upload your presentations properly so you must double-check them.
After the due date/time has passed, Turnitin does not allow students to go back in and delete
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passed, if you discover that your presentation file has not properly downloaded, it is your
responsibility to get it fixed, not through your tutor’s, marker’s or mine. Use ‘OneHelp’ and/or
‘iLearnHelp’ and place a trouble-ticket because it is a systems problem and must be addressed
through the IT desk.
If your marker discovers that your presentation has not properly uploaded, they will send you
an email and try to make contact but from that day forward, you will be charged a 2% per day
late penalty for each day you delay getting your presentation loaded correctly; after 7 days
you will receive a grade of Zero (0). There will be no exceptions.
This is part of your education process, learning ‘attention to detail’, ‘trust but verify’ and
follow-through…simply having a ‘submission receipt’ indicating your presentation has been
accepted to Turnitin is of little to no value until you have checked to ensure it is properly
uploaded for marking.
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PICT2010 – Intelligence and Counter Intelligence
One-Page Analytical Issue Paper & Intelligence Estimate (Marking Template)

% / Mark out of 30 (Analytical Issue Paper is worth 30 out of the 100
marks for this unit).

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