Another way to analyze fiscal data over time is via Time Series Analysis. Time Series Analysis enables public administrators and policy analysts to examine values of a variable over equally spaced intervals of time (e.g., income figures, monthly or yearly). Using Times Sries Analyses, administrators and analysts can discern patterns in the values that then enable them to forecast future values based on historical and existing patterns.
A time series plot allows an analyst to look for (1) outliers and sudden shifts in data patterns and (2) long-term increase or decrease in the data values. A trend plot also will show whether the data pattern is linear or nonlinear as the time series plot. Then, the question to be asked is, why?
Instructions
To successfully complete this assignment, please refer to the Research Paper: Simple Time Series Analysis Assignment Guide found on the Research Paper: Simple Time Series Analysis Assignment page.
For this assignment, you will compute and interpret a Simple Time Series Analysis called “Exponential Smoothing” and write a four-page report stating your findings, including chart(s).
Once the plot is completed, you will write a four-page report, including chart(s), interpreting the findings.
This is a Doctoral-level research assignment designed to test your ability to carefully research, effectively organize, and concisely communicate a nuanced understanding of the concepts and issues raised in the assignment. While the minimum page limit is short (as is often the case in public policy/public administration briefings), students are expected to craft efficient, highly substantive papers. You are expected to comport with the highest writing, research, and ethical standards.
The paper must be in current APA format with 1-inch margins and 12-pt Times New Roman font. You must also include a title page and reference page. You must include citations to a sufficient number of appropriate professional, scholarly, or other appropriate sources to fully support your assertions and conclusions (which will likely require more than the minimum number of citations); each paper must include a minimum of 5 sources, not including the course textbooks, assigned readings, and the Bible.
Plagiarism in any form is strictly prohibited and may result in failure of the assignment, failure of the course, and/or removal from the program. It is your responsibility to ensure that you fully understand what constitutes the various forms of plagiarism and to avoid all forms of plagiarism.
Note: Your assignment will be checked for originality via the Turnitin plagiarism tool too
This PADM 702 assignment asks you to perform a simple time-series analysis of fiscal data — plotting values over equal time intervals to spot outliers, shifts, and trends, and forecasting future values. Build the plot and interpret the patterns.
Key takeaways
- Time-series analysis examines a variable at equally spaced time intervals.
- A time-series plot reveals outliers, sudden shifts, trends, and seasonality.
- Use the patterns to forecast future values.
- Interpret what the trends mean for fiscal management.
- Follow the assignment’s data and method requirements.
Build the time series
Gather the fiscal data over equal intervals (e.g., annual or monthly revenue/expenditure) and create a time-series plot. Ensure the intervals are consistent.
Analyze the patterns
Examine the plot for: (1) outliers and sudden shifts (one-off spikes, policy changes) and (2) long-term trends (steady increase/decrease) and any seasonality or cycles. Interpret what caused them.
Forecast
Use the historical pattern to forecast future values (trend projection or a simple moving average), and explain the assumptions and limitations of the forecast.
Interpret for policy
Discuss what the trends mean for public-administration/fiscal decision-making.
Format
Include the plot and analysis, and cite your sources.
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