assessment will be a group portfolio

Updated August 2018 1
Component 2: This assessment will be a group portfolio of 2,000 words report The
assessments will be completed during the duration of the module in term 2.
Details of the task:
For this assignment, you are tasked with constructing a forecasting model of your chosen
country’s (MY COUNTRY IS GHANA) saving behavior using the VAR/VECM
approach. You will use your model to assess whether or not there has been a structural
break in the country’s saving (or consumption) function since the onset of the financial
crisis in the last quarter of 2007. You will need to demonstrate the model’s usefulness
by showing that it is able to predict, within sample, the behavior of the actual saving (or
consumption) rate for 1961q1–2007q4.
After you have formulated your preferred model for the saving (or consumption)
function, assess its out-of-sample forecasting performance (i.e., for 2008q1-2017:4) and
whether your chosen country’s saving (or consumption) rate will revert to its pre-crisis
levels. This requires you to decide whether the parameters of your preferred model have
changed since 2007q4 using appropriate statistical tests.
THE CONSUMPTION FUNCTION HAS TO BE CALCULATED WITH (i)
household consumption (ii) disposable income (iii) interest rate (iv) inflation
(metadata)
Broad guidelines:
1. Data on most country’s consumption, income, and saving can be downloaded
from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis database (FRED). You are required
to download quarterly data from the first quarter of 1961 to the fourth quarter of
2017.
2. To get a feel for the data, plot the variables using both a time plot (using the log
level) and a scatter plot (using Δlog rather than the log level). Also, regress your
dependent variable on a constant and other exogenous variables and then
examine the fitted residuals, looking for evidence of any changes in the
relationship between consumption, disposable income and net wealth. Is there a
structural break in the relationship? If so, use a dummy variable to allow for it.
3. Specify a long-run model for real consumption using real disposable income, and
any other variables that you feel can explain the long-run behavior of
consumption. If using savings, be sure to specify relative long-run model. Be
sure to state your priors for the correct signs of the coefficients before estimating
the model. Also, it would be helpful if your model was expressed in “log” form,
so that the parameter estimates are elasticities.
4. The sample period for model specification (selection of your best model for
forecasting purposes) must end at 2007:4. In preliminary work, it’s been found
that workable specifications for the aggregate consumption function can be found
using data from 1961:1 onwards.
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5. Determine the statistical properties of the variables used in your analysis (i.e.,
I(0) or I(1)). Formally test for unit roots in the data and cointegration if
appropriate, and estimate the long-run model using an appropriate estimator
given the statistical properties of the data. The model could be expressed in levels
form if you feel that the data supports that specification.
6. Starting from the “long-run” specification, construct an equation (e.g., an error
correction equation) that can explain the actual behavior of consumption during
the sample period. Justify the ECM specification using standard regression
diagnostics, including robustness of the parameter estimates, lag-length
selection, and residual diagnostics (actual versus fitted).
7. Use your preferred model and the EViews’ solver to produce dynamic & static,
forecasts for your chosen country’s savings (or consumption) rate for 2008:1-
2017:4 (depending on availability of data). Given your findings, discuss whether
the increase or decrease in the country’s saving rate or consumption that occurred
around 2007:4 is permanent or transitory.
In all, please support your analysis with graphical representations of the saving rate (or
consumption), for the out of sample forecast. Given that you are working with real
aggregate consumption, the implied saving rate will need to be calculated using the
standard NIPA tables definition (see the definition provided in the footnote below1).
Report Structure
Your report should follow the following structure:
Title Page:
The title page must include the following:
• The Title of the project: In this case, Predicting [insert your country] Saving (or
Consumption) Behaviour after the 2008 Financial Crisis.
• Student numbers: your NAME must NOT appear in the report
• Course name and year of submission.
Executive summary:
Maximum 200 words (not included in the words count) of a summary of the project’s
main aim, approach, and results.
Table of Content Page:
This page lists the main parts of the report, together with their page numbers.
Introduction: A quick overview of the behaviour of your chosen country’s household
sector’s saving rate (or consumption) since the 1990s.
1 The saving rate (percentage points) can be derived from total real consumption and real household
disposable income using the following formula:
saving rate=100*(rdy – (rc + ((gov_transfers + interest_payments)/y_deflator)))/rdy. where: rdy is real
disposable income; rc is real consumption. Note that the saving rate must be expressed in real terms
because these are the variables that the model will forecast.
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Methodology: Case study (any of country of your choice). Here you will explain how
you are planning to provide empirical evidence in order to support your hypothesis.
Discuss the data sources, description and econometric methods applied.
Discussion: You discuss the results here and any other implications, including the
various robust checks applied.
Conclusion: Should contain a summary of your main findings and identify areas of
importance.
References: You should present all your sources following the Harvard Referencing
System
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Appendix(s):
If needed such as diagrams, news clips, figures and graphs, which are too large for the
text, should be provided in this section.
General Presentation of your report
The report must be word processed or typed on A4 paper, double spaced with 25mm
margins. The font size must be such that the project is easily readable e.g. a font size of
either 12 or 14 points (excluding headings). Use widely-used fonts such as Times New
Roman, not those that might be considered informal or unusual. Pages must be
sequentially numbered.
Chapters, sections and sub-sections must be clearly identified and sequentially numbered
or lettered, with separate chapters beginning on a new page.
Diagrams, graphs, figures, tables, pictures and charts must be incorporated into the report
and they should be clearly labelled and referenced.
Reference guidance
References must be accurately provided in the text using the Harvard System (see “Cite
Them Right: the essential referencing guide” 9th edition). All quotations must be
acknowledged and correctly presented within the text i.e. other than very short ones,
quotations should be indented and in single spacing. As a student you will be taught how
to write correctly referenced essays using UEL’s standard Harvard referencing system
from Cite Them Right . Cite them Right is the standard Harvard referencing style at UEL
for all Schools apart from the School of Psychology which uses the APA system. This
book will teach you all you need to know about Harvard referencing, plagiarism and
collusion. The electronic version of “Cite Them Right: the essential referencing guide”
9th edition, can be accessed whilst on or off campus, via UEL Direct. The book can only
be read online and no part of it can be printed nor downloaded.
Further information is available at
https://uelac.sharepoint.com/LibraryandLearningServices/Pages/default.aspx
Word Count
• Your word count should not include your abstract, or reference list. You should
provide your word count at the end of your report.
• Should not exceed the word count by more than 10%; if it does, it will result in
a penalty of 5% of your marks for your work.
• If your work is significantly shorter, then you will probably have failed to provide
the level of detail required.
Number of words should be mentioned at the end of the dissertation and before the
bibliography.
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Grading criteria outline

Learning outcomes assessed
1 – 10, as indicated in the module guide
Submission deadline
Component 1: Individual report – week 12 (20th December 2019).
Component 2: Group report – week 23 (27th March, 2020) and Group presentation
– week 24 (3rd April 2020).
Submission is online via the TurnItin Link on Moodle.
Submission guidelines
We strongly suggest that you try to submit all coursework by the deadline set as meeting
deadlines will be expected in employment. However, in our regulations, UEL has
permitted students to be able to submit their coursework up to 24 hours after the deadline.
The deadline is published in this module guide. Coursework which is submitted late,
but within 24 hours of the deadline, will be assessed but subjected to a fixed penalty of
5% of the total marks available (as opposed to marks obtained). If you submit twice,
once before the deadline and once during the 24 hour late period, then the second
submission will be marked and 5% deducted. This rule only applies to coursework. It
does not apply to examinations, presentations, performances, practical assessments or
viva voce examinations. If you miss these for a genuine reason, then you will need to
apply for extenuating circumstances, or accept that you will receive a zero mark.
Further information is available in the Assessment & Feedback Policy at
https://www.uel.ac.uk/Discover/Governance/Policies-Regulations-Corporatedocuments/Student-Policies (click on other policies)
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Notice is hereby given that all submissions for component 1 of this module [individual
and group portfolio] must be submitted to Turnitin.” If you fail to submit any of the
assessment task to Turnitin, in accordance with the guidance provided on the Virtual
Learning Environment (Moodle), a mark of 0 will be awarded for the component.
Submitting Assessments Using Turnitin:
Turnitin is required for coursework assessments, such as report/research papers or
projects in Microsoft Word, PowerPoint, and in PDF format. There are two main reasons
we want you to use Turnitin:
• Turnitin can help you avoid academic breaches and plagiarism. When you use
Turnitin before a submission deadline, you can use the Originality Report feature
to compare your work to thousands of other sources (like websites, Wikipedia,
and even other student papers). Anything in your work that identically matches
another source is highlighted for you to see. When you use this feature before
the deadline, you will have time to revise your work to avoid an instance of
academic breach/plagiarism.
• Turnitin saves paper. When using Turnitin to electronically submit your work,
you will almost never have to submit a paper copy.
Late Submissions Using Turnitin
UEL has permitted students to be able to submit their coursework up to 24 hours after
the deadline. Assessments that are submitted up to 24 hours late are still marked, but
with a 5% deduction. However, you have to be very careful when you are submitting
your assessment. If you submit your work twice, once using the original deadline link
and then again using the late submission link on Turnitin, your assignment will be graded
as late with the 5% deduction.
Turnitin System Failure
Best advice: Don’t wait until the last minute to submit your assessments electronically.
If you experience a problem submitting your work with Turnitin, you should notify your
lecturer/tutor by email immediately. However, deadlines are not extended unless there
is a significant systems problem with Turnitin. UEL has specific plans in place to
address these issues. If UEL finds that the issue with the system was significant, you
will receive an email notifying you of the issue and that you have been given a 24
hour extension. If you don’t receive any email that specifically states you have been
given an extension, then the original deadline has not been changed.
Feedback and return of work
You will receive detailed feedback on each of the summative assessments mentioned in
the table above, within 3 weeks of submission. Feedback will also include constructive
comments on how to improve performance in relation to the academic standards of the
university, where appropriate.
Face to face feedback on any aspect of the assessments will also be given during
assessment and feedback week.
Individualised feedback on TCA/Exam will be provided on request during office hours.
Updated August 2018 7
Extenuating Circumstances
Extenuating Circumstances are circumstances which:
• impair your examination performance in assessment or reassessment, or
• prevent you from attending for assessment or reassessment, or
• prevent you from submitting assessed or reassessed work by the
scheduled date
If you need to apply for extenuating circumstances please find the relevant information
at: www.uel.ac.uk/qa/documents/extenuatingcircumstances.doc
Re-assessment Work
You will need to re-sit any of the component if any of the following occur during the
semester:
• You fail to achieve 30% or more for each component (portfolio or the exam)
You will need to re-sit the module if any of the following occur during the semester:
• You fail to achieve 40% for the module, overall.
You will be expected to complete a similar piece of work for your second attempt within
40 days of the release of your results.
Student Appeals
Students who wish to appeal against Field and Award Boards decisions can find the
relevant information at: http://www.uel.ac.uk/qa/qualityass_appeals.htm
Updated August 2018 8
DETAILED GRADING CRITERIA – AT-A-GLANCE GUIDE

Updated August 2018 9
APPENDIX RELEVANT KEY FORMS
N/A

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