2019 BBA 315 – BUSINESS FORECASTING

Case Study Report 1
Due: 11 pm, Friday 3^rd May
 Format

The main tables, charts and results should be presented throughout the report to highlight your responses to the questions. All other computer output should be put into labelled and referenced appendices.
This Case Study Report assessment will require a written submission based around a comprehensive business forecasting project. You will need to determine and find suitable empirical data which will be then be used as the basis of relevant business forecasts and associated recommendations.
Reports are required to be submitted through Turn-it-in by the relevant date and time indicated above. Convert your DOC file into a PDF prior to submission. You will also have to upload your XLS file through iLearn. No extensions will be granted.

There will be a deduction of 10% of the total available marks made from the total awarded mark for each 24-hour period, or part thereof, that the submission is late (for example, 25 hours late in submission – 20% penalty). This penalty does not apply for cases in which an application for Special Consideration is made and approved.
The task involves choosing appropriate data for the task. The choice of appropriate data needs to be justified and relevant data selection is part of the assessment process.
Forecasts for the relevant target variable will be related to forecasts for variables available through the ABS website. Often in forecasting and other research, the available data will not perfectly match the situation. The forecaster/researcher needs to make a judgment on suitable data that approximate the exact variable (s) needed.
The only thing you should do is to type your answers directly on the file, including cutting and pasting relevant output from EXCEL or MINITAB.

Answers – pre-formatted DOC File on iLearn 
Answers to this assignment must be typed on the pre-formatted DOC file that has been uploaded on iLearn.
Please do not alter the formatting of this file:

• Do not change the font size.
• Do not change the line spacing.
• Do not change the paragraph settings.
• Do not change the page margins.
• Do not change the headers or footers.
• Do not edit or delete the questions.
• Do not edit any other component of the file apart from typing your answers and cutting and pasting relevant output.

As per the pre-formatted DOC file on iLearn, your answers will be in Georgia font, size 11. The answers are to be in black font, while the questions have been set in red font.

As per the pre-formatted DOC file on iLearn for the answers the answers must be contained within the stipulated pages. In other words:

Page 1 – Questions 1 & 2

Page 2 – Questions 3 & 4

Page 3 – Question 5

Page 4 – Question 6

Page 5 – Questions 7 & 8

Page 6 – Question 9

Page 7 – Question 10

You can cut-and-paste relevant output into these pages. All other output should be included in the appendices. The appendices can be of any length.

A page has been dedicated for a reference list in the pre-formatted DOC file.

2019 BBA 315 – BUSINESS FORECASTINGCase Study Report 1

 

Due: 11 pm, Friday 3^rd May

 

Each student has been assigned an airline as per the ‘Airline’ list in the Assignment section on iLearn.

 

You are working for your designated airline and the board of your airline is considering the launch of new direct flight services to Australia (Sydney / Melbourne / Perth) from your home country and/or a codeshare service via a flight to Australia (Sydney / Melbourne / Perth) through an international hub where your airline already services – either Dubai or Singapore. In this regard, you need to forecast the visitor numbers from the country of origin of your airline into Australia for at least the upcoming year. You will need accurate forecasts for each month of the year as you need to adjust your airline’s schedule depending on the differential demand in each month.

 

Questions

1. Identify a relevant time series for the visitors arriving to Australia from your airline’s home country (for at least the last 20 years) which may be useful in generating the forecasts required by your airline. You may merge time series if you deem this is necessary. Justify your choice/s.

Data should be available through the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

Provide a line chart of the relevant time series for approximately the last 20 years.

2. Comment in general on the characteristics of the time series line chart. What systematic components are evident in the time series? Explain your answer.
3. Confirm the presence of the systematic components of the time series using relevant tools and measures. Explain your answer.
4. Outline the economic and environmental factors or circumstances which are likely to have influenced the characteristics or components of the time series. Will these factors or circumstances apply to the relevant forecasting period? Explain your answer.
5. Without applying a decomposition, apply an appropriate method in EXCEL to smooth (remove randomness) the chosen time series for the last 4 years to help further identify the relevant systematic components. Explain what you have done.
6. From the results of the above smoothing, provide a time series line chart comparing the original time series with the generated smoothed values. Comment on your smoothing. Include the forecasts from #10 as part of your line chart above.
7. Perform the appropriate tests for whether your model has captured all the systematic components and/or whether the errors are random. Explain your answer.
8. Do the results in #6 and #7 suggest any re-evaluation or modification, if at all? Explain your answer.
9. Using the results of the smoothing method you applied, provide numerical estimates for the underlying systematic components (for example, if a trend is observed provide a relevant trend equation and/or if seasonality is observed provide estimates of the seasonal relatives or indexes).

 

Using your results, provide an appropriate time series model for the time series you selected in #1.

 

Critically evaluate your choice of model.

 

10. Use EXCEL to provide relevant monthly forecasts for total visitor arrivals from your airline’s home country to Australia for each month beyond the sample data period (one year of monthly out-of-sample forecasts). Compare and contrast your forecasts using MINITAB. Comment on any differences you observe between the two sets of forecasts.

 

Explain why (or why not) such a time frame (one year of monthly out-of-sample forecasts) beyond the sample period would be appropriate for the launch of new air travel routes.

 

Critically evaluate the factors you would need to consider when forecasting for the second or third year (of monthly forecasts) beyond the sample period.

 

 

Marking Rubric

COMPONENT/ WEIGHT

FAIL (F)

PASS (P)

CREDIT (C)

DISTINCTION (D)

HIGH DISTINCTION (HD)

0% to 49%

50% to 64%

65% to 74%

75% to 84%

85% to 100%

CRITICAL THINKING AND ANALYSIS:    (50%)

Consistently does all or almost all of the following:

Does most or many of the following

Does most or many of the following

Does most or many of the following

Consistently does all or almost all of the following:

Articulation of issue(s)

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Issue is not clearly stated not explained using appropriate mode (e.g. symbols, formulas, graphics).

Issue is appropriately and explained adequately using appropriate mode (e text, symbols, formulas, graphics).

Issue is clearly stated clearly explained using appropriate mode (e.g. symbols, formulas, graphics).

Issue is clearly stated and succinctly explained using appropriate mode (e.g. symbols, formulas, graphics).

Issue is clearly stated succinctly and comprehensively explained using appropriate mode (e text, symbols, formulas, graphics).

TASKS INVOLVING CRITICAL THINKING

–          Choice and justification of relevant time series –          Comments on the nature of the time series –          Comments and analysis on the factors which have influenced the components of the time series –          Choice and justification of relevant time series model for forecasts

Analysis

– Information from  and appropriate is stated but not d using relevant and ate theories, concepts, orks, models, es. There is no ion of the issue(s). dard, no merit to  and conclusions. – The analysis is ed, evaluated, ed and/or synthesised rt and provide e for a clear overall nt or position. relevant counter nts. – Opinions, assumptions, influences, biases, constraints, weaknesses, limitations, implications and/or nsequences are not appropriately identified and .g. evaluated, interpreted).

Analysis

– Information from  and appropriate is stated and routinely d using relevant concepts, orks, models, es There is little xploration of the Conclusions evident  analyses –                     The analysis is ed, evaluated, ed and/or synthesised degree, to support vide evidence for a argument/position. trates adequate integration.  Some ation of alternate ives. –                     Opinions, assumptions, influences, biases, constraints, weaknesses, limitations, cations and/or consequences are stated but responded to (e.g. stioned, evaluated,

Analysis

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Analysis

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Analysis

– Information from  and appropriate is comprehensively d using relevant concepts, orks, models, es There is further ion of the issue(s). ions and analyses d by evidence in an al and scholarly – The analysis is ed, evaluated, ed and/or synthesised to support and evidence for a clea argument/position. identify contrasting nts. Critically s major alternative f view. – Opinions, assumptions, influences, biases, constraints, weaknesses, limitations, ations and/or consequences are expertly with relevant and thoughtful response (e. questioned, evaluated,

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PRACTICAL GENERATION OF RESULTS AND FORECASTS    (30%)

Consistently does all or almost all of the following:   The work omits relevant graphs, line charts or tables and/or the graphs, line charts and tables contain serious errors.     The work has not used appropriate methods to smooth the time series and/or to produce forecasts       The forecasts generated are unsuitable and/or contain serious errors. Results are incorrect or missing.     The work contains major errors of design or execution which undermine the main conclusions

Does most or many of the following     The work includes relevant graphs, line charts or tables but the graphs, line charts and tables contain several errors.   The work has used appropriate methods to smooth the time series and/or to produce forecasts but no further analysis is presented.   The forecast methods used to generate forecasts are suitable but the forecasts contain errors. Some results are incorrect and/or missing.   The work contains some errors of design or execution which don’t however undermine the main conclusions

Does most or many of the following     The work includes all relevant graphs, line charts or tables and the graphs, line charts and tables contain minor errors.   The work has used appropriate methods to smooth the time series and/or to produce forecasts and provides limited discussion.   The forecast methods used to generate forecasts are suitable and the forecasts contain no errors. Most results are correct.     The work contains only minor errors of design or execution.

Does most or many of the following     The work presents all relevant graphs, line charts or tables correctly and the graphs, line charts and tables contain no errors.     The work has used appropriate methods to smooth the time series and/or to produce forecasts and provides further relevant discussion.   The forecast methods used to generate forecasts are suitable and the forecasts contain no errors. All results are correct.     The work contains no errors of design or execution. Design and execution of work shows creativity and understanding of the topic.

Consistently does all or almost all of the following:   The work presents all relevant graphs, line charts or tables expertly. All results with diagrams and tables are linked to discussion/prediction.   The work has used appropriate methods to smooth the time series and/or to produce forecasts and provides extensive and insightful discussion.   The forecast methods used to generate forecasts are suitable and the forecasts contain no errors. All results are correct.     The work contains no errors of design or execution. Design and execution of work is innovative showing a deep understanding of the topic.

TASKS INVOLVING GENERATION OF RESULTS AND FORECASTS

–          Generation of suitable line plots for the time series –          Application of appropriate method to smooth the time series –          Provision of numerical estimates of time series components   –          Generation of suitable forecasts

WRITTEN  COMMUNICATION AND PRESENTATION: (20%)

Ineffective written communication and presentation inadequate with little regard for standards of scholarship

Adequate written communication and presentation with some evidence of scholarship

Effective written communication and Presentation set out with an acceptable standard of scholarship

Effective written communication and presentation expertly set out, for the most part, with a high standard of scholarship

Effective written communication and presentation expertly set out with an excellent standard of scholarship